Living ‘large’ may be the way we Americans might have described our way of life from the 1950’s to 2008 but the recession has changed not only behavior but our state of mind. The value of individual home ownership is in question and many families have entered a renting lifestyle, often even pooling resources and renting together. Even so, the recession has caused a stubbornly high vacancy rate for properties serving the middle class.
According to Reis, Inc. the good news is that rents appear to be declining in only 10 major markets out of the 82 markets their research team follows. Even factoring in the declines, overall apartment rents gained 0.7 percent from April through June. This may seem a rather small improvement unless you consider it is the biggest quarterly gain in over two years. During the first three months of the year Baltimore and Orlando suffered the biggest rent declines. On a year-over-year basis, Phoenix’s rents declined 2.3 percent and Las Vegas rents 2.9 percent, showing the largest annual drops.
Experts contend that rents in areas with an oversupply of vacant or foreclosed single family homes will have a harder time moving back up. The exceptions have been Affordable and luxury housing, as tenants have continued to absorb these existing supplies. Developers are also continuing to concentrate on these two bookends because financing has been available making the risk lower. Reis, Inc. also reported the first decline in vacancies in the last three years, with the rate moving from 8 percent down to 7.8 percent. According to Reis, researchers believe this reversal reflects improved consumer confidence and the beginning reversal of the trend by families to move in together. Of course, returning to the pre-recession living patterns of singles and pared-down families is not guaranteed and may be a long way off even if it happens.
Commercial landlords are also experiencing some of the same downsizing as the residential rental market. In an article posted by the CoStar Group, several major lease renewals are identified that reveal a substantial decline in the amount of space re-leased. These large companies renewed their leases after casting off square footage amounts ranging from 53,000 to 97,000 - representing a space reduction of 13 to 22 percent.
In another article CoStar reported that institutional quality commercial buildings – for this purpose defined as Class A with a minimum value of $10 million and 100,000 square feet aka luxury buildings – are a resilient hotspot for investors. However, before you get too excited, since January of 2009, 70 percent of the 216 office transactions that have occurred in this category have all been concentrated in just five markets: Boston, New York, D.C., San Francisco and Los Angeles. If you are not located there, commercial vacancies are undoubtedly a concern.
It is well known in the industry that both luxury apartments and luxury office buildings are thriving. In fact almost every luxury building has incorporated green management into its operations and operates energy efficient systems to lessen costs whether or not it has formally obtained a high-level USGBC LEED certification. This excerpt from CoStar Group’s article makes this point well:
“There is a Grand Canyon gap in value disparity between “A” properties and everything else,” said Fred B. Cordova III, senior vice president / CART Western regional director at Colliers International in Los Angeles. “The private REITs are pushing pricing on quality product across all product types, but steering clear of anything below investment grade.”
Regardless of how well these particular markets with select, high-level product are doing, the residential and commercial building sector can still be defined as ‘distressed’. There is heavy competition for all categories of tenants and will continue as such until people are back to work and our economy is believed to have finally stabilized.
The U.S. recession has had some positive results, however. One of them is that many people have discovered an ability to live and work in ’smaller’ spaces and are learning to feel pride about using less energy and water. It is not unprecedented, as our forebearers had large families and managed to live and produce quite successfully in their small, 800 to 1,000 square foot homes.
Apartment managers who recognize the newer needs of residents will be able to improve their own occupancy rates, even if the general market continues to sag. Learning to live and work ’smaller’ can have a very large impact on reducing the amount of carbon each of us produces. If the multifamily community can make a bundled lifestyle more palatable, it’s a social triumph and will help produce a better quality of life for us all.
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